The think tank Warsaw Enterprise Institute (WEI) published a report on the estimated size of the shadow segment of the non-bank loan market. According to calculations by its experts, over 1.25 million transactions are carried out annually in the shadow economy, representing 15% of the non-bank loan market and totaling 5.1 billion PLN. Furthermore, in the first half of 2025, 77% of applications submitted to legally operating non-bank lending institutions were rejected, and 59% of applicants did not obtain financing from any such company.

See also: Check who is really calling. A new feature in the Revolut app

The WEI specialists attribute the current situation to overly restrictive provisions of the 2022 anti-usury law. These regulations, among other things, set maximum non-interest credit costs, introduce rigid legal frameworks for lenders, and prohibit granting loans to repay current liabilities.

“A strong, legal, and competitive loan market is the best tool to combat the shadow economy. Where the legal offer disappears, the illegal one immediately appears. We forecast that unless regulations concerning the loan sector, such as the limit on non-interest costs, are made more realistic, the current rejection rate of nearly 80% will increase even further. And consumers who do not receive financing will even more often seek funds in the shadow economy,” says Piotr Palutkiewicz, Vice President of WEI.

See also: Poland ranks second in the European Union in terms of payments per card

According to the monthly report of the Association of Financial Enterprises (ZPF) co-created with the IT Centre of the Ministry of Finance (CIRF) on the condition of the loan market, the value of loans granted in November 2025 increased by 21% compared to the same month in 2024, reaching 1.8 billion PLN. The number of loans granted in the same period rose by 9.5% compared to November 2024, reaching 0.4 million. Interestingly, the share of new clients in the market reached 8.7%. Thus, to a large extent, the loan sector serves people who previously had and repaid obligations.

The think tank WEI promotes economic freedom. In WEI’s ideological declaration, it states that the institution supports, among other things, simple, low taxes, the elimination of bureaucratic barriers for entrepreneurs, and the reduction of excessive bureaucracy.